It was another tough loss for the Road to 272 Bets. After a solid first half of the season, our dream of posting a fourth winning year since starting the Road to 272 in 2020 is slowly fading. We went 6-10 for -4.6 units in Week 15, which brings our season-to-date record to 107-113-4 for -13.58 units. We need a mini-miracle at this point to get back in the green on the season, but I'm going down swinging.
I have my Week 16 bets locked and loaded.
If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts.
NFL Week 16 Best Bets for Every GameBroncos vs. Chargers Prediction
Jim Harbaugh has clearly made a huge difference for the Chargers in his first season as the head coach, but Los Angeles is still clearly lacking some skill players on the offensive side of the football. Not only that, but their dominant defense has struggled in recent weeks.
The biggest matchup to watch in this game is the Chargers' pass attack against the Broncos secondary. Denver's secondary ranks inside the top three in virtually every pass defense statistic while the Chargers, outside of McConkey, have few weapons in the passing game. Justin Herbert has been able to succeed despite his lack of weapons, but that may not fly against a secondary as strong as the Broncos.
I'll take the points with the Broncos and lean on their defense to keep this game close.
Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction
The Texans are currently listed as 2.5-point favorites in Kansas City on Saturday which means the market is already treating the game as if Patrick Mahomes won't be playing, despite that not yet being confirmed. Even if he doesn't play, I think there's slight value on the Chiefs in this spot with the line set at KC +2.5.
Carson Wentz is one of the more capable backups in the NFL, but this wager is more so betting against the Texans' offense in a tough road spot against the Chiefs' defense. Houston has struggled to move the ball all season, and it's been even worse in recent games, averaging just 4.6 yards per play over their last three games, the fifth-worst mark in the NFL. Their offense is also just 22nd in EPA per play and 28th in success rate since Week 11.
Something is going on with the Texans' offense whether it's a bad offensive line, regression from C.J. Stroud, or a lack of creativity with their playcalling. That could be bad news against a Chiefs defense that seemed to have figured something out last week against the Browns.
If Mahomes doesn't suit up, I think this game will be closer than people expect. If he does end up playing, we're going to be sitting with a great number if we have a Chiefs +2.5 ticket in our hands.
Steelers vs. Ravens Prediction
In the first half of the season, I was betting against the Ravens due to significant issues they were having with their defense, specifically their secondary. Now, we're seeing those signs are starting to be fixed which means it could be a great time to invest in Baltimore.
From Week 1 – Week 10, the Ravens ranked 30th in opponent dropback EPA and 23rd in opponent dropback success rate. Since Week 11 they've ranked fifth and second in those two metrics, which is a huge step forward for a team that seemingly has no other holes.
The Ravens now enter Week 16 leading the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +1.6, which is +0.5 yards better than the next best team. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, comes in at 22nd in that stat and is starting to get exposed for not being as good as their record might indicate.
I'll lay the points with the Ravens on Saturday.
Rams vs. Jets Prediction
The Jets have ironically played some of their best football of the season recently, ranking seventh in the league in Net Yards per Play (+0.6) over their last three games. The Rams are likely the popular pick in this spot, but I'm not as sold on Los Angeles as other people are.
The Rams are 23rd in Net Yards per Play this season and 13th over their last three games. Their defense went through a strong stretch this season but they're now just 18th in opponent EPA and opponent success rate since Week 13. They're also 29th in the league in opponent yards per pass attempt, meaning their secondary is extremely susceptible which could leave an opening for Aaron Rodgers and the Jets' offense.
It's not one of my favorite plays of the week, but I think the market is a touch too high on the Rams. I'll take the three points at plus-money on the Jets on their home field.
Eagles vs. Commanders Prediction
With the Lions suffering the amount of injuries they have, the Eagles may have surpassed them as the best team in the NFL. They have virtually no holes on their roster and have handled strong competition all season long.
Meanwhile, I still have some concerns about the Commanders' offense. They were a top-five unit in the first half of the season but are now just 13th in EPA per play and 10th in success rate since Week 11, including a disappointing performance against the Saints last week. The issues could be caused by a regressing Jayden Daniels, opposing teams figuring out a rookie quarterback, Kliff Kingsbury's historical regression in the second half of the season, or a mixture of all four factors.
The Eagles' defense, specifically their secondary, is going to prove to be too much for the Washington offense to handle. They dominated the Commanders early in the season, gaining 2.0 more yards per play, and I expect this game's final score to be even more lopsided.
Cardinals vs. Panthers Prediction
The Cardinals are the clear better team and have a ton to play for, but Kyler Murray's career performances in the month of December are going to keep be away from laying the points on them on the road. Instead, I'll take the UNDER.
The Arizona defense has been much better in recent weeks, ranking 14th in opponent EPA per play since Week 11. Bryce Young has a tough matchup ahead of him after turning into a pumpkin last week, throwing for just 219 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions.
I expect both offenses to struggle in this one therefore I think the total is a point or two too high. I'll take the UNDER.
Titans vs. Colts Prediction
I deserve to have a losing season for the amount of times I've bet on the Titans, but I refuse to give up. Their metrics are so much better than their game results which leads me to believe they have value in the betting market. For example, they're 17th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play, one spot above the Chiefs.
Now, they get to take on a Colts offense that has been abysmal lately. The Colts are 31st in EPA per play and 30th in success rate since Week 11. Anthony Richardson has been bad outside of one good start against the Jets and the Titans' secondary is good enough to give him fits on Sunday.
I'll take the points with the Titans in this divisional matchup.
Lions vs. Bears Prediction
It's hard to lay a touchdown on the Lions on the road when you consider how banged-up this team is. On top of the plethora of injuries they were already dealing with, the Lions last David Montgomery, Khalil Dorsey, Carlton Davis III, Alim McNeill, and Trevor Nowaske in Week 15 against the Bills. A team can only take so many injuries before they're significantly affected and I think the Lions just hit their tipping point.
Let's consider the Bears still have some weapons offensively and a solid defense. A team this young is going to continue to fight in the final weeks of the season, despite having no hope for a playoff spot. Do they pull off the upset? Likely not, but this is absolutely a situation where I'll bet them getting a touchdown worth of points.
Giants vs. Falcons Prediction
Even in their win against the Raiders on Monday night, the Falcons looked bad, but the Giants are a completely different kind of bad. Whether it's Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, or Tim Boyle at quarterback for the Giants, their team is a disaster. They're last in the NFL in both EPA per play and success rate since Week 11 and while the Falcons have issues of their own, they should be able to steamroll this team in a must-win situation.
Browns vs. Bengals Prediction
I'm going to like this bet a lot more if the Browns start Jameis Winston over Dorian Thompson-Robinson, but no matter who starts at quarterback the Browns, I'm going to take the touchdown worth of points with them.
The Bengals' defense is too bad to trust them to cover this big of a spread, despite them being able to do so last week against the Titans.
The Nick Chubb injury could be a blessing in disguise for the Browns offense. Jerome Ford is averaging 1.9 more yards per carry than Chubb this season so now they'll be forced to give Ford the ball and let him cook.
He should be able to thrive against a Bengals defense that ranks 30th in opponent rush EPA and 31st in opponent rush success rate. That's enough for me to bad the 'dogs in a divisional showdown.
49ers vs. Dolphins Prediction
The 49ers and Dolphins may be the two most disappointing teams in the NFL this season, but I still believe in San Francisco despite a complete dud of a performance against the Rams on Thursday Night Football.
I'm starting to question Mike McDaniel. His offensive scheme hasn't worked as he envisioned, opting for short throws to replace running the ball between the tackles in hopes their speed can create YAC. Opposing defenses have caught on to that and if there's a coach in the league that knows how to shut it down, it's his mentor, Kyle Shanahan.
Despite their bad record, the 49ers still rank third in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +1.0. Despite having nothing to play for, I think they upset the Dolphins in Week 16.
Vikings vs. Seahawks Prediction
I could do what I did last week and talk myself into taking the Seahawks, but I have no interest in doing so with Geno Smith still questionable with a knee injury despite positive signs from tests taken on Monday morning.
Even with Geno healthy, the Seattle offense has struggled lately, ranking 21st in EPA per play. Meanwhile, the Vikings offense is rounding into form. Early in the season, they were being carried by their defense, now it's the offense that's stepping up in a big way and Sam Darnold continues to play at a high level.
Minnesota has too many ways to beat a stumbling Seattle team on Sunday. I'll lay the field goal with the Vikings.
Patriots vs. Bills Prediction
The Bills should absolutely be significant favorites, but a spread of more than two touchdowns should be reserved for games involving teams with no redeeming qualities who are likely starting a backup quarterback, like the Giants last week against the Ravens. The Patriots aren't that and while they have plenty of issues on both sides of the ball, Drake Maye provides them consistency at quarterback.
The Patriots rank 18th in EPA per play and seventh in success rate since Week 11. They're also 11th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+0.3) over their last three games. That's not the makeup of a team that should be a 14.5-point underdog.
The Bills are banged up on defense. Casey Toohill, Taylor Rapp, Damar Hamlin, Rasul Douglas, Matt Milano, and Cole Bishop are some of the names on defense battling issues right now, and as a result, they've allowed teams to score at will lately.
Let's not forget the Bills have allowed 40+ points in two straight weeks. They need to figure something out on that side of the football if they want any hope of covering this spread.
Give me the points with New England.
Jaguars vs. Raiders Prediction
I price this game as a pick'em on a neutral site so with the Raiders playing on their home field, I'll bet on them to beat the Jaguars. Even without Maxx Crosby, the Raiders have the better defense in this game. The Jacksonville defense is the worst in the NFL and they continue to prove that on a weekly basis.
The reality of this game is we have a matchup between two of the worst teams the NFL has to offer. With oddsmakers setting it as a coin flip, I'll just take the home team and hope for the best.
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Prediction
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have become a dark horse team in the NFC that no playoff team will feel confident playing against. I'm shocked they're just four-point favorites against the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.
Their offense is a top-five unit in the NFL. They rank fourth in success rate, seventh in EPA per play, and sixth in yards per play (6.1) this season. Their biggest issue was their defense but they may have figured something out there. The Bucs now rank fifth in opponent EPA per play since Week 11.
Tampa Bay is quietly one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now and Dallas will have nothing to offer them on either side of the ball. Bucky Irving will have a field day against one of the worst run defenses in the league.
Saints vs. Packers Prediction
Spencer Rattler gave the Saints enough of a spark last week to come within a two-point conversion of upsetting the Commanders, but let's not forget he ranks 41st out of 43 quarterbacks this season (100+ snaps played) in both EPA + CPOE Composite and adjusted EPA per play.
Now, he has to play against a red-hot Packers team that's making one final push in the NFC North. Green Bay has moved up to No. 2 in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+1.1). They're also one of only three teams who rank inside the top eight in the league in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play.
The short-handed Saints are overmatched in this one. I'm going to bet on the Packers running away with the run in this one.
