The 2025 edition of First to Forde is underway!
If you're unfamiliar, Sports Illustrated's Senior Writer, Pat Forde, and SI Betting Insider, Iain MacMillan, are facing off in a friendly competition to see who can correctly pick the right side of the spread in 40 games this college football season.
Each week, Forde and MacMillan will have to pick five games against the spread that they like the most. In Week 0, they kept it to three picks, with it being a short slate of games, and Forde took an early lead, correctly predicting two games to MacMillan's one.
With a full slate of games in store for Week 1, it's time for the two competitors to break down their top five spread picks for this week's action.
Pat's Week 1 PicksTexas +2.5 vs. Ohio State (FanDuel)
One team is replacing a quarterback, the other is replacing almost everything. Yes, the Buckeyes have arguably the two best players in college football in receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs – but the other 20 positions don’t stack up favorably against a loaded Longhorns team. And let’s be frank, almost everyone expects the new Texas quarterback to be better than the old Texas quarterback (who was pretty good).
Toledo +9.5 vs. Kentucky (FanDuel)
Last year, the Rockets went into SEC territory and dominated Mississippi State, and this year’s Toledo team could be better than that one. The Wildcats have lost their way in recent seasons, and the annual quarterback churn through the portal hasn’t been productive. We’ll see what Zach Calzada can change that, but I’ll take Toledo getting more than a touchdown.
Notre Dame -2.5 vs. Miami (Caesars)
The Fighting Irish are just a more fully formed program at this juncture than the Hurricanes, even with an inexperienced quarterback. The Notre Dame defense, which led the nation in takeaways last year, is loaded again. The offense has a star running back in Jeremiyah Love and an elite backup in Jadarian Price. The line is good. The new receivers should help. Is Carson Beck going to be as plug-and-play ready as Cam Ward was last year? That’s a lot to ask.
Nebraska -6.5 vs. Cincinnati (Caesars)
This is a de facto Cornhuskers home game in Kansas City, which always swarms with Nebraska fans. Expect Dylan Raiola to take a step forward in his maturation, and expect the Bearcats to struggle on the road as they did in the latter half of last year in failing to cover against Kansas State, Iowa State, and Colorado.
Montana State +27.5 vs. Oregon (FanDuel)
Beware the Bobcats! The FCS runners-up last year are a dangerous opening opponent, especially for a team filling holes at quarterback, receiver, and defensive line. I’m not here to say the Ducks lose, but I think the Ducks will struggle to cover a spread of more than four touchdowns.
Iain's Week 1 PicksGeorgia Tech -4.5 vs. Colorado (BetMGM)
I'm going to fade Colorado until the Buffaloes can prove they can win without Shedeur Sanders at quarterback and a Heisman Trophy winner in Travis Hunter at receiver and defensive back. Georgia Tech is returning plenty of players from the 2024 season and the Yellow Jackets' secondary is expected to be a tough unit that I think will have no problem shutting down the Colorado offense.
Alabama -13.5 vs. Florida State (Caesars)
It's hard to have much faith in Florida State in the opening week. It may figure things out as the season progresses, but eight of the Seminoles' starters on offense came in through the transfer portal, meaning there's little chemistry on that side of the football, and the players will need some time to learn the system and how to play with each other. It's also worth noting that Alabama is 9-1 against the spread in its opening game over the past 10 seasons.
South Dakota +14.5 vs. Iowa State (FanDuel)
I wasn't impressed with Iowa State in Week 0. Sure, the Cyclones got the win, but they had a Net Yards per Play of -2.6, and they looked lost without an answer at receiver to replace Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Now, they have to deal with jet lag as they return home to take on an extremely tough FCS team in South Dakota. It's worth noting that South Dakota averaged just 3.31 opponent yards per carry last season, one of the best marks at the FCS level. If Iowa State struggles to run the ball against this defense, they have no answer through the air.
LSU +3.5 vs. Clemson (FanDuel)
I think Clemson is one of the more overrated teams in the country heading into this season. I need to see the Tigers prove they can beat SEC teams, which they haven't been able to do in over a year. Clemson went 0-3 against SEC opponents in 2024. As long as LSU can utilize its No. 1-ranked Transfer Portal Class, it can keep this game within a field goal.
TCU -3.5 vs. UNC (Caesars)
UNC has a lot to prove in Bill Belichick's first year as their head coach, and I'm not entirely sure they're ready. Their defense could be a huge question mark, losing their top four tacklers from last season. Meanwhile, TCU has a ton of continuity from 2024, including returning their starting quarterback in Josh Hoover, and their head coach, Sonny Dykes. This is too much for the Tar Heels to handle in Belichick's UNC debut.
